So I've been thinking through the various developments in the communications space such as VoIP, WiFi, WiMax, UWB, etc. trying to make sense of it all and figuring out who the winners and losers are going to be.
For example:
Will the cable guys come out ahead using VoIP as the club to hammer at their telco rivals in the race to own the pipe and services at the home? Will the telcos come out on top by rolling out higher bandwidth products and content partnerships to their massive customer base? Will WiFi combined with mesh networking technologies and WiMax mean that the RBOCs will no longer be needed for much of what they're currently collecting tolls for? How about the cellular guys? What happens when all wireless access (via WiFi, WiMax, etc.) is pretty much ubiquitous? Who's going to make money from that?
I haven't really figured out anything definitively yet. But, I ended up with a couple of surprising thoughts as follows:
#1 - The fight between cable and telco for control of the home is understandable BUT I think misses the bigger opportunity. That opportunity being: who owns everything (I mean, everywhere) else. No question that the home is important. But someone better wake-up and figure out the much bigger question of who owns you when you're not at home. If not, no one will (or, to put it another way, everyone will) or the current horrible service providers will get the best crack by default, which really sucks!
#2 - I think the real story behind all these trends is that the mobile / cell phone is the only true winner. (Yeah, I know there will be a select few in the cell phone ecosystem that will win out...) As I've explained previously, the mobile phone will continue to take the functionality and features so that it is THE ONLY mobile device that you will need. What I hadn't really thought about and now am beginning to realize is that, by default, this also means that it will end-up being at the center of the home as well...
What happens when you think of the cell phone in the context of being in the home and being an always-on connection device. What are the possibilities?
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